Dr Scott Aguais is currently Managing Director for the Z-Risk Engine solution (‘ZRE’), at Aguais & Associates LTD that focuses on advanced modelling of systematic credit cycles to support credit model development, IFRS9, traditional bank capital focused stress testing and Climate Risk. Scott has over 30 years’ experience, utilizing E2E cross-functional teams to, develop, and implement advanced credit risk analytics and models in large banking institutions. He led the credit modelling and implementation teams for Basel II at Barclays Capital and RBS where he and his long-time research partner Dr. Larry Forest led the development and implementation of the first PIT/TTC credit ratings approach within banks.
Most recently, Scott has been working on designing a climate stress test scenario approach and has published 7 climate/credit risk papers over the last year. His recent climate risk contributions have included contributing a paper to the special issue of Frontiers, “Decision Making for the Net Zero Transformation: A Compendium of Best Practice,” edited by Dr Gireesh Shrimali of Oxford’s CGFI. One of the main contributions of Scott’s recent climate research is to propose adding volatility and unexpected shocks to current climate stress test scenarios using an empirically-based multi credit factor approach.
Dr. Aguais earned a Ph.D. in Economics from Boston University and is widely published in the credit risk modelling literature and climate risk more recently with Dr Forest and has published roughly 25 credit risk publications including leading the global thought leadership for PIT/TTC ratings.